Col. Alok Mathur, SM (Retd)
Persian Gulf, a beautiful calm aqua blue sea shore in West Asia, richest in oil reserves, has suddenly turned red hot with hundreds of warplanes/ drones /missiles flying overhead since 27/28 February 2026 midnight. Iran has suffered massive fatal and non- fatal causalities and loss of large quantity of naval vessels and war planes. The entire top hierarchy of the country has been eliminated including the Supreme Head, Ali Khamenei.
Notwithstanding the loss, the country has exhibited extraordinary resilience. The second and even third tier of leadership has taken over and is operational. Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ali had been nominated as the new Supreme Commander.
USA had declared prematurely that Iran’s war capability had been destroyed and War will be over soon. Iran has launched Operation True Promise 4.0 in retaliation. Iran Revolutionary Guard corps rained a heavy shower of homemade ballistic and conventional missiles not only on Tel Aviv and Haifa but also on US overseas military bases located in UAE, Saudi Arabia Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, on southern bank of the Gulf causing heavy destruction of US assets in the middle East.
Let us review the geography of the war zone. Persian Gulf is a shallow, highly strategic, marginal sea in West Asia located between Old Persia (Iran) in the North and Arabian Peninsula in the South. Arabs liked to address it as Arabian Gulf., the west prefers to call it the Gulf. It is also known as Khaleej-e-Fars. The length of the Gulf from East to West is about 1000 kms and width varies from 33 kms to 400 kms. The Gulf is closed from the West. Shatt-al-e Arab delta which is fed by Tigris and Euphrates ends in the Gulf from north west. It has its mouth towards the Sea of Oman which further opens in to the Arabian Sea in East and down to the Indian Ocean.
The strait of Hormuz is the Eastern and only gateway to the Gulf and the narrowest choke point. Port Bandar Abbas of Iran in the North and Musandam port of Oman in the South are important towns on the mouth of the Gulf. The surface area is 251,000 square km. The water volume is about 9000 cubic metres. The depth varies from 90 metres to 50 metres only. Bulk crude carriers and container carriers have to follow the limited deep channels. Zagros mountains with average height about 2500 metres overlook the Gulf from the North and the great Arabia desert is in South. It has lovely coral reefs, pearl oyster gardens and abundance of marine life. The most important treasure of Gulf is abundance of crude reserves which makes it Gulf of black Gold, the largest oil basin of the globe.
The total coastline of Gulf is 5117 kms. There are eight countries around Persian Gulf; Iran (1536 kms) in North, Iraq (58 kms) and Kuwait (544kms) in West, Saudi Arabia (1300 kms) Bahrain (161 kms), Qatar (563 kms) in south and United Arab Emirates (900 kms) and Oman (100 kms) in South East.
There are a few islands in Gulf. Bahrain is an island. Qeshm, Great Tunb, Lesser Tunb, Kish, Hengam, Hormuz and Lark islands are controlled by Iran, Babuyan Island (Kuwait), Tarout Island (Saudi) and Dalma island belongs to UAE.
USA and Britain being old colonial powers always had strategic interest in the Gulf. After the change of regime in Iran since 1979, the Gulf has become a disturbed zone. Iran-Iraq long War (1980 t0 1989), Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait in 1990 and Gulf War in 2003; followed by prolonged Iran Israel conflict and now OP Epic Fury has kept Gulf water boiling.
Iran and Israel have clashed four times since 2024 as Iran is pursuing its nuclear weaponisation programme at fast pace. Iran is a strong military power in the region and had huge arsenal of missiles and drones. Israel feels that if Iran succeeds in manufacturing nuclear warheads, it would be threat to the existence of the country. Iran gives plenty of reasons to Israel to feel that way by funding and supplying weapons to three terror groups ie Hamas based in Gaza, Hezbollah located in Lebanon and Houthis embedded in Yemen. These terror groups have launched a proxy war against Israel, Israel often undertakes offensive action against these rogues and also belligerent Iran. Operation True promise 1.0 to 4.0 are Iran’s reply to joint Israeli and US offensive action.
Op True Promise 1.0
On 1 April 2024, Israel bombed the Annexe building in Iranian Embassy complex at Damascus (Syria) killing 16 Iranian nationals. Brig General Mohmad Reza Zahedi of Iran Revolutionary Guards corps (IRGC) Kurd’s force commander with seven senior officers was killed. Six leaders of Hezbollah were also among fatal casualties. Iran was warned not to escalate the situation but it vowed to retaliate and even threatened the countries having US bases on their soil. On 13 April 2024, Iran Defence Forces launched Operation True Promise 1.0 on last light and rained 350 Ballistic and Cruise missiles. The prime targets were Tel Aviv, two Airbases at New Atim and Ramon and Mount Hermon Base in Golan heights. Hezbollah also fired 100 plus rockets on 13 April 2024.on Northern Israeli towns. Israel Air defence umbrella called the Iron Dome shielded the Israeli towns and Military bases, David Sling and Arrow missiles destroyed 98% of Iranian Missiles mid -air. Iran used Shahed 136 loitering drones to deceive Israeli Air defence but these were also successfully neutralised, Iran used Emad, Ghadar 110, Sahab 3, Khyber Shanken missiles against Israel. Fighter aircraft of Israel Defence Forces (IDF) silenced Hezbollah bases in Beirut and southern Lebanon. There was one fatal causality and 31 Israeli citizens were injured in the operation. IRGC commander’s called it mission accomplished. Israel postponed further retaliation for the next date. There was a missile attack on 19 April 2024 but Israel kept silent. Thus, Op True Promise 1.0 ended in a stalemate.
Operation True Promise 2.0
On 31 July 2024, Mossad tracked Ismail Haniyeh, Political leader of Hamas and assassinated him at Tehran where he was hiding in a safe house to take revenge of the 07 October 23 attack on Israeli Kibbutz near Gaza. Many Hamas leaders were killed by IEDs concealed in Walkie Talkies sets on 17/18 September 2024. On 20 September, Ibrahim Aqil, commander of elite Redwan force was killed. Iran retaliated with missiles and Drone attack on Israel. On 27 September, 2024, Hasan Nasrallah and Ali Karaki, the top commanders of Hezbollah were killed by IDF Jets in Beirut. IDF also launched ground operations in Southern Lebanon to neutralise Hezbollah hide outs.
Iran launched Operation True Promise 2.0. with Supreme leader Ali Khemini sanctioning the missile invasion on Israel. The first wave comprised of 100 plus Ballistic and Cruise missiles (Fattah and Khyber) followed up with Shahed 136-Armed drones. The targets were Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, Nev Atim and Ramon Air bases. The next day followed up with another wave of Missiles. 99% missiles and drones were intercepted by the Iron Dome and Air defence Arrow missiles. Mossad HQ near Tel Aviv was also targeted but it survived Missile attack. Operation Promise 2.0 was finally called off as it achieved its objective. USA also warned Iran not to touch any US bases in Gulf.
Op True Promise 3.0
Twelve Day War between Iran and Israel flared up on 13 June 2025 as 200 IDF War planes targeted more than 100 Iranian military bases and nuclear facilities located at various sites deep inside. Iran initially went on defensive posture and used HQ-9B Chinese and Russian S -300 Air defence system. The Israeli named the attack as Operation Rising Lion. Iran retaliated with 550 short and medium range cruise and ballistic missiles and 1000 Shahed 136 drones on Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Khan Yonis and Haifa. Iron Dome was activated by IDF and most of the Iranian missiles were intercepted and neutralised. It caused some destruction of Israel infra structure. Iran then used hypersonic SejjIl and Fattah 2 missiles and was able to breach the shield of Iron Dome. Iran attacked Dimona Nuclear facility of Israel but US patriots intercepted most of Iranian missiles. Iran suffered heavy destruction and causalities. Iran now threatened that it would attack US Military bases located at Gulf counties ie Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Cyprus, Iraq around Persian- gulf.
On 22 June 2025, US initiated Operation Midnight Hammer and carried out deadly bombing with GBU 57 Bunker burster bomb weighing 30,000 lbs each with Strategic B-I Spirit stealth bombers and struck nuclear facilities of Fordow, Nantz and Isfahan in Iran. The main objective was to degrade and destroy Uranium enrichment capability and ensure that Iran’s ambition to make WMD was eliminated for ever. USA declared unilateral ceasefire on 24 June and also asked Israel and Iran to end the War. Iran suffered 610 killed and about 5000 wounded, whereas Israel also had fatal 28 causalities and 3800 injured. Finally, all guns fell silent on last light of 24 June 2025 in the Khaleej War Zone. Later the intelligence report disclosed that Iran had produced about 400 kg of weapon grade uranium and shifted to unknown location prior to US mission. The mission remained incomplete.
Op True Promise 4.0
Iran launched retaliatory attack on US bases in West Asia on 28 February 2026 after the United States and Israel jointly struck selected targets across Iran following the stalemate in bilateral nuclear inspection talks in Oman and Switzerland. USA under operation Epic Fury and Israel under Operation Roaring Lion simultaneously hit 30 sites across Iran including IRG Headquarters in Tehran, Military HQ, Air base, Naval ports and nuclear facilities at Tabriz, Nantz, Fordow, Isfahan, Busher and Bandar Abbas on 25 and 26 February 2026. The biggest loss Iran suffered was killing of political hierarchy and military leadership including the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khemieini.
Iran Revolutionary Guard and its Aerospace command have vowed to take on might of USA and Israel under its own strategy. Iran has named it as Operation’ Imam Ali ‘. As the main enemy nation USA is 10200 kms away and Israel is 1572 kms away, Iran Armed forces (Atresh) which is the 16th most powerful Army in the world, with 10 Lakh troops, are unable to respond directly. They have reviewed their strategy.
Vade-ye-Sadeq
True Promise (Persian Vade-ye-Sadeq) is based on ideological foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran that if some enemy dares to cross Red-line, it would retaliate at targets of own choosing and bleed the invader to death.
Iran Aerospace Force so far launched 77 Waves of combination of cruise and ballistic missiles on US military bases located in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq including US Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain. Moreover, it has also targeted US base at Diego Garcia. It has also rained missiles at Tel Aviv, Beer Sheba, Jerusalem, Khan Yunis. It attacked the nuclear facility at Dimona town on 23 March causing minor damages to complex and 73 employees killed/ injured.
The most important loss to world economy is closure of Strait of Hormuz from where 33% of Crude and 33% 0f Natural Gas was being supplied to World. Almost 75 Large Bulk Carriers/Ocean liners are struck since last two weeks. Oil Fields and facilities have emerged as new targets and threatening to involve the entire world. One sane thing is that only three nations are at War rest all are watching the match from the side-lines. Russia and China are providing only verbal and indirect support and are happy that USA is struck in a desert mirage and quicksand. Both sides are exhausted now and waiting for UN / Third party initiative for end of hostility.
The Indian Response
Indian PM while addressing Lok Sabha on 23 March 2026 reconfirmed its stand that war is not the solution. All matters can be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue. He had requested all three nations to restrain tensions and communicate among them. He said we condemn attack on commercial shipping in Hormuz and it should not be blocked.
India had so far sufficient stocks of Petroleum. LPG, Coal, Grains and fertilisers. Our three ships have reached Indian Ports with liaison with Iran. We have evacuated 3.75 Lakhs Indians from Middle East and 1000 Indians including students have been brought back from Iran. Indian Medical Team has already reached Tehran.
Meanwhile, US President has warned Iran not to block Shipping routes in Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has now openly sanctioned use of King Fahid Air base by US Air force and concentrate its Task Force for Operation in Hormuz.
Even though there is talk of ceasefire and talks, the ground situation gives a different perspective altogether. The war may continue indefinitely. It can only be hoped that the tree parties will follow rules of war and not target innocent civilians. It is also hoped that sanity and maturity will be resorted to in not crossing the nuclear threshold.