Jaibans Singh
Asim Munir – Less Soldier, More Mullah
The terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April witnessed the brutal murder of 27 tourists and left many critically wounded. The incident left India and the world aghast and horrified. The Indian response to the reprehensible attack came in the form of Operation Sindoor that created a new strategic paradigm in the South Asian sub-continent.
The conduct of the operation by the Indian Armed Forces and its politico-diplomatic handling by the Government of India has been analysed in great detail. It has also found excessive articulation on social media and Television debates.
The thought process that propelled Pakistan (Asim Munir) to launch this misadventure and its impact on the country is an aspect that has received limited scrutiny and study. Munir has deliberately not been addressed by his rank since he is a Jihadi and not a soldier. This analysis gains significance since it will guide the events in the future and dictate the preparedness model for India in dealing with the multiple forms of cross-border misadventures that Pakistan, under General Munir, is likely to undertake.
Asim Munir
It is well established that the terrorist attack in Pahalgam was launched with the assent of General Asim Munir (Mullah Munir), the radicalised incumbent chief of the Pakistan Army.
Munir’s father, Syed Sarwar Munir, was the imam of a mosque. His family is locally known as Hafiz because its members, including the general, have memorized the holy Quran. Munir’s early education was in a Madrasa.
The religious background of the general, his military upbringing in a radicalised Army, and his service with the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as Director General before taking over the army, makes it easy to identify him as a thoroughbred Hawk of the establishment.
Munir, however, turned out to be a politician more than an Army Chief. It is open knowledge that he is responsible for the ouster and imprisonment of Imran Khan. The present government of the country run by Shahbaz Sharif continues with his favour. While the previous chiefs managed extensions for themselves, Munir got a legislation passed to ensure a five-year term that will finish as late as 2027.
Lately, Munir realised that he has been ignoring the core issue of Islamic zealotry which keeps the country bound to the Army and adds to the personality of the Army Chief. Therefore, in an address at an Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad on April 16, in which even the prime minister of the country was in attendance, he made a speech that has been described as provocative and inflammatory the world over.
“You have to narrate Pakistan’s story to your children so that they don’t forget that our forefathers considered us to be different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life” he said while referring to India and the two-nation theory. On the issue of Kashmir, he said, “Our stance is absolutely clear, it was our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle.”
His hate speech met with a fevered applause by the audience. Even the prime minister of Pakistan was seen clapping vigorously. Later it was described, within Pakistan as lucid, purposeful, and visionary The congregation left no doubt about its full support to Munir even as the rest of the world harboured opposite views and looked upon it with a sense of disquiet.
The terrorist attack in Pahalgam came days after this inflammatory speech by Munir. Intelligence agencies have indicated that this speech may have served as a catalyst for the attack. Another thought process advocates that the attack had already been planned before the speech was made and was executed after the speech. Now, the message of a new belligerence towards India by the Pakistan army is loud and clear.
Devastating Punishment Inflicted on Pakistan
While launching such attacks the Pakistani military establishment remains prepared for a Uri or Balakote like response from India. They accept it since the loss of terrorists and terrorist training camps is of little consequence for the army. Terrorists are mere cannon fodder with ample replacement available and terrorist camps are rudimentary structures that can be rebuilt. So, Munir was not very concerned.
Even in his dreams Munir had not appreciated or planned for the ferocity of the Indian response that literally broke the spine of Pakistan’s military apparatus. He committed the same mistake of tactical underestimation that Musharraf had committed during the Kargil misadventure.
On the night of 6/7 May, nine terrorist camps were meticulously selected with the help of satellite imagery and thermal signatures and shortlisted for destruction. They were attacked with Brahmos and SCALP Supersonic cruise missiles and HAMMER precision guided smart ammunition fired from Rafales and Sukhoi 30 MK I and completely destroyed. There are confirmed reports that approximately 150 terrorists were killed in various camps.
Significantly, 10 family members of the terrorist master Masood Azar lost their lives in the strike. Their funeral was attended by many top Army and Police officers which established the nexus between terror organisations, the Pakistan army and the Police.
New Delhi also suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, terminated the visa-free travel regime and closed the Attari border crossing between the two countries.
India had declared that its objective was to destroy the terrorists and their camps. In consideration of the military action having achieved its objective, India took the righteous position of agreeing to a ceasefire.
Stuck in a corner, Munir did what most Pakistan Army chiefs had done in similar situations before him. He maintained a high level of confidence and gave assurances to the country that he would sort out the Indians in 48 hours.
India had intelligence of Munir’s intentions to escalate and as such the second pre-emptive strike was launched on Pakistan’s airfields and command and control structure on the night of 8 May. Most critical was the destruction of Pakistani Nur Khan air base in Chaklala where Pakistan’s nuclear secretariat, the Strategic Plans Division was located. Thus, Pakistan’s command, control and communication hub was annihilated.
Similar attacks were launched on other bases like Sukkur, Bholari, Jacobabad, Rahim Yar Khan, Sargodha etc. It is believed that at Bholari, an airborne early warning and control system (AEW&C) aircraft parked in a targeted hangar was destroyed. At Jacobabad, multiple parked F-16 aircraft are suspected to be damaged.
Devastating Punishment to Pakistani Terror Hubs
The Indian Air Force Chief has confirmed that six Pakistani aircraft – including five fighter jets and minimum one AEW&C were shot down during Operation Sindoor. Possibly the second AEW&C was also damaged on ground.
Finally, the three terrorists who were responsible for the Pahalgam massacre were also killed in an incisive operation carried out in the mountains of Dachigam. The Pakistani connection of these terrorists has been established. This has put paid to all narratives that the attack was indigenous in nature. Pakistan and Munir stand exposed in front of the world.
The losses, obviously, registered a huge military and strategic setback for Pakistan. It was on the brink of an inability to respond to a stand-off battle that would involve missiles and aircraft. This led to the panic request for a ceasefire to which India agreed based on its principled posture made public earlier of not escalating the conflict in a manner that would involve the people of the country.
For India, agreeing to a ceasefire was a difficult decision strategically since Indian military leaders were staring at an opportunity to completely destroy Pakistan’s war machine or damage it to an extent where its rebuild would take at least a decade. Then there was the huge loss of face for the Pakistan army that had the potential of changing forever the political dynamics of the country.
India however, chose to respect the traditional confidence building measures that had been put in place between the two countries by establishment of a hot-line between the Director Generals of the two armies on which the ceasefire was agreed upon. India, once again, chose restraint over brinkmanship.
Crisis Situation for Mullah Munir
The humiliation that Munir and his army faced led to a crisis situation in the leadership module of the country. With the loss of face also came fears of a political backlash by the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) whose leader Imran Khan has been incarcerated by Munir in a dubious and undemocratic manner. Thousands of Imran Khan’s supporters are rallying across the country and courting arrest while demanding his release. A weak political establishment would find it very difficult to withstand this onslaught.
The second challenge to Munir came from the militant organisations who had suffered terrible losses due to his hare-brained plan. Masood Azar may say that he has welcomed the Sahadat (martyrdom) of his family members but surely he would be seething within.
The Munir Game Plan
Keeping Imran Khan away and the militant organisations at bay united Munir, the Sharifs, and the Bhutto-Zardaris like never before. What followed was a well-orchestrated narrative of “victory” in the conflict being floated shamelessly. The massive losses suffered by the military establishment of the country were side-lined with well-publicised allegations of having shot down five Indian Rafale fighter aircraft. The final psychological assault on the Pakistan people came in the form of elevation of Munir to the rank of Field Marshal on May 20.
This narrative was helped, in no small measure, by the immature mishandling of the situation by US President Donald Trump, including his much talked about lunch invitation to Munir. This gave leverage to Munir and his establishment to convince the ignorant people of the country about the high stature and operational readiness of the Pakistan army with support from both China and the US.
Munir has leveraged his increasing clout to pressurise his financially beleaguered country into a massive military spending spree for creation of a “Pakistan Army Rocket Force Command,” that will specialize in the deployment of conventional missiles (cruise and ballistic, subsonic, supersonic, and hypersonic and rockets) covering battlefield, medium, and long ranges. The move is aimed at bolstering Pakistan’s conventional deterrence capabilities since the nuclear bluff has already failed.
With the domestic situation in control and support flowing from the US as well as China Munir is riding a high horse. He has left the Sharif-Bhutto gang way behind and taken the mantle of the saviour of Pakistan. In this new avatar he made yet another visit to the US. This time he went to Tampa and met some high officials of the US military. Surprisingly the US again came to his assistance by giving a terrorist tag to the Baluch insurgent organisation, the Majeed Brigade.
The US has conveniently forgotten that a short while back, Richard Grenell, President Trump’s presidential envoy for special missions has publicly castigated Pakistan for not doing enough for the release of Imran Khan. He had severely criticised the current regime of institutionalized authoritarianism prevalent in Pakistan. The unevenness and high degree of opportunism in the US policy towards India and Pakistan is apparent. The US simply cannot be relied upon to pursue a just and righteous path.
Munir also attended a formal dinner with the Pakistani Diaspora in Tampa where he was at his best radical element. He liberally quoted from the Quran and drove home a point that he would not hesitate from unleashing a nuclear attack on India should the latter country proceed with a plan to construct a dam on the River Indus.
Back home, the Munir gang has kept the pressure of strengthening the staged victory over India and the decisive military success of their Operation Bunyanum Marsoos as a response to Operation Sindoor by awarding themselves with national honours during the Independence day celebrations Munir has awarded himself the Hilal-i-Jurat, the country’s second-highest wartime gallantry medal, equivalent to India’s Maha Vir Chakra. A series of awards have been bestowed upon Pakistan’s top political and military leadership.
The government of Pakistan has also declared that the country’s Independence Day would be commemorated as ‘Marka-i-Haq’ or the Battle of Truth, the official term adopted by the Pakistani state to describe events after India launched Operation Sindoor.
Concluding Remarks
Mullah Munir and his coterie have admirably extricated themselves from the mess that they were in post the humiliating drubbing that their country suffered in the aftermath of the Pahalgam misadventure. The entire loss will now be borne by the people of Pakistan who are already reeling under severe poverty and deprivation. Sadly, the people of Pakistan have believed the fake narrative of their leaders and have, yet again, forgiven their recalcitrant Army.
There is nothing more dangerous in this world than a feeling of victory snatched from the brink of failure experienced by a radical fundamentalist terrorist. Munir now falls in this very dangerous category. He is here to stay for a long time and has exhibited determination to pursue the agenda that has catapulted him to such high levels.
There are reports of a feeling of disquiet within the global Nuclear, military, strategic and diplomatic community over his audacious and irresponsible diatribe in Tampa, Florida. How this anxiety will convert into action remains to be seen. Will it be ignored as the ranting of a frustrated and desperate leader or will it be seen as a critical warning to act before it is too late. The International nuclear community cannot afford to ignore this happening.
China would be witnessing the developments and India’s discomfiture with utmost glee. It will happily take the opportunity of imposing a proxy war on India by providing financial and weaponry support to the Pakistan Army to do the actual fighting. By doing so, China will not only use Pakistani real estate as a battleground and the Pakistani people as cannon fodder, it will also avoid exposure of its weak and politicised army. Munir will be more than happy with this situation. China should realise that the “half the world” that Munir has threatened to “take down with him” includes its major portion too
The people of Pakistan will need to realise the need to escape from annihilation in the war that will be engineered by their leaders as proxies of the US and China. The likes of Munir will emerge rich and powerful while the people will be taken back to the middle ages, in case they survive.
The US should look beyond its immature vested interests articulated by a president who has limited strategic understanding.
India has to admit that under extreme circumstances created by evil and inimical forces, the high pedestal of “no first use policy” will need a serious rethink. There is also a need to go for production of tactical nuclear devices with employment freedom given at the tactical level.
The only way to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict in the sub-continent is to build a new regime that realises the risk of military escalation. All stakeholder and the world in general needs to remain sensitised to the vulnerability that Munir is creating. Munir is more mullah and less general and should be viewed in his correct persona.